Wayne Anderson
November 7, 1996
The year 2000 is practically around the corner, promising a new era of greatness and
wonder . . . as long as you don't own a computer or work with one. The year 2000 is bringing a
Pandora's Box of gifts to the computer world, and the latch is slowly coming undone.
The year 2000 bug is not really a "bug" or "virus," but is more a computer industry
mistake. Many of the PC's, mainframes, and software out there are not designed or
programmed to compute a future year ending in double zeros. This is going to be a costly "fix"
for the industry to absorb. In fact, Mike Elgan who is the editor of Windows Magazine, says " . .
. the problem could cost businesses a total of $600 billion to remedy." (p. 1)
The fallacy that mainframes were the only machines to be affected was short lived as industry
realized that 60 to 80 million home and small business users doing math or accounting etc. on
Windows 3.1 or older software, are just as susceptible to this "bug." Can this be repaired in
time? For some, it is already too late. A system that is devised to cut an annual federal deficit to
0 by the year 2002 is already in "hot water." Data will become erroneous as the numbers "just
don't add up" anymore. Some PC owners can upgrade their computer's BIOS (or complete
operating system) and upgrade the OS (operating system) to Windows 95, this will set them up
for another 99 years. Older software however, may very well have to be replaced or at the very
least, upgraded.
The year 2000 has become a two-fold problem. One is the inability of the computer to
adapt to the MM/DD/YY issue, while the second problem is the reluctance to which we seem to
be willing to address the impact it will have. Most IS (information system) people are either
unconcerned or unprepared.
Let me give you a "short take" on the problem we all are facing. To save storage space
-and perhaps reduce the amount of keystrokes necessary in order to enter the year to date-most
IS groups have allocated two digits to represent the year. For example, "1996" is stored as "96"
in data files and "2000" will be stored as "00." These two-digit dates will be on millions of files
used as input for millions of applications. This two digit date affects data manipulation,
primarily subtractions and comparisons. (Jager, p. 1) For instance, I was born in 1957. If I ask
the computer to calculate how old I am today, it subtracts 57 from 96 and announces that I'm 39.
So far so good. In the year 2000 however, the computer will subtract 57 from 00 and say that I
am -57 years old. This error will affect any calculation that produces or uses time spans, such as
an interest calculation. Banker's beware!!!
Bringing the problem closer to the home-front, let's examine how the CAPS system is
going to be affected. As CAPS is a multifaceted system, I will focus on one area in particular,
ISIS. ISIS (Integrated Student Information System) has the ability to admit students, register
them, bill them, and maintain an academic history of each student (grades, transcripts, transfer
information, etc.) inside of one system. This student information system has hundreds and
hundreds of references to dates within it's OS. This is a COBOL system accessing a ADABAS
database. ADABAS is the file and file access method used by ISIS to store student records on
and retrieve them from. (Shufelt, p.1) ADABAS has a set of rules for setting up keys to specify
which record to access and what type of action (read, write, delete) is to be performed. The
dates will have to have centuries appended to them in order to remain correct. Their (CAPS)
"fix" is to change the code in the Procedure Division (using 30 as the cutoff >30 century = "19"
<30 century = "20"). In other words, if the year in question is greater than 30 (>30) then it can
be assumed that you are referring to a year in the 20th century and a "19" will be moved to the
century field. If the year is less than 30 (<30) then it will move a "20" to the century field. If
absolutely necessary, ISIS will add a field and a superdescriptor index in order to keep record
retrieval in the order that the program code expects. The current compiler at CAPS will not
work beyond the year 2000 and will have to be replaced. The "temporary fix" (Kludge) just
discussed (<30 or >30) will allow ISIS to operate until the year 2030, when they hope to have
replaced the current system by then.
For those of you with your own home computers, let's get up close and personal. This
problem will affect you as well! Up to 80% of all personal PCs will fail when the year 2000
arrives. More than 80,000,000 PCs will be shut down December 31, 1999 with no problems.
On January 1, 2000, some 80,000,000 PCs will go "belly up!" (Jager, p. 1) These computers
will think the Berlin Wall is still standing and that Nixon was just elected President! There is
however, a test that you can perform in order to see if you are on of the "lucky" minority that do
not have a problem with the year 2000 affecting their PC.
First, set the date on your computer to December 31, 1999. Next, set the time to 23:58
hours (if you use a 24 hour clock (Zulu time)) or 11:58 p.m. for 12 hour clocks. Now, Power Off
the computer for at least 3 to 5 minutes. Note: ( It is appropriate at this time to utter whatever
mantras or religious chants you feel may be beneficial to your psyche ). Next, Power On the
computer, and check your time and date. If it reads January 1, 2000 and about a minute or two
past midnight, breathe a sigh of relief, your OS is free from the year 2000 "bug." If however,
your computer gives you wrong information, such as my own PC did (March 12, 1945 at 10:22
a.m.) welcome to the overwhelming majority of the population that has been found "infected."
All applications, from spreadsheets to e-mail, will be adversely affected. What can you
do? Maybe you can replace your computer with one that is Year 2000 compatible. Is the
problem in the RTC (Real Time Clock), the BIOS, the OS? Even if you fix the hardware
problem, is all the software you use going to make the "transition" safely or is it going to corrupt
as well?!